A weekly food bill of £80 could be at least £5 more expensive in a year’s time according to projections, with a loaf of bed just under £1.50 and a kilo of bacon a little under £10.
Forecasts from Goldman Sachs suggest that year-on-year food inflation will still be as high as 6.4 per cent in a year’s time. And though this is a fall from 15.9 per cent across the current quarter, it will still lead to an increase in families’ bills.
While inflation is predicted to fall, this just means that costs will increase at a slower rate. i has calculated what regular food items could cost in a year’s time, using Goldman Sachs’ predictions.
What family favourite food items could cost in a year’s time.
- Loaf of white sliced bread – up by 9p from £1.39 to £1.48.
- 250g of butter – up by 15p from £2.34 to £2.49.
- Bottle of olive oil – up by 38p from £5.95 to £6.33.
- Two pints of milk – up by 8p from £1.30 to £1.38.
- A kilogram of bananas – up by 7p £1.12 to £1.19.
- A kilogram of new potatoes – up by 9p from £1.39 to £1.48.
- Tin of baked beans – up by 7p from £1.07 to £1.14.
- Kilogram of bacon – up by 58p from £9.11 to £9.69.
- A kilogram of sugar – up by 7p from £1.08 to £1.15.
- Jar of honey – up by 14p from £2.24 to £2.38.
These figures are calculated assuming price rise at the same rate across food items, but different items could rise by either more or less.
In the past year for example honey only increased in price by 3 per cent, whereas sugar did so by 47 per cent.
While 250g of butter is £2.34, spreadable Lurpak comes in a 500g tub and often costs as much as £5. A 6.4 per cent rise could see this retail at £5.32.
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There are various factors that have led to UK food inflation reaching such a high level. This includes poor harvests in Europe and North Africa which have meant wholesale prices have shot up as ingredients like wheat and barley have been in short supply.
Rising fuel prices have also played a part, by making imports more expensive, whilst the Russian invasion of Ukraine has also been a major factor, especially on items such as grain and sunflower oil – with Ukraine being the biggest exporter of the latter in recent years.
The British Retail Consortium has previously said that there is normally a three to nine month lag between producer prices spiking and the costs consumers face hitting its peak.
Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that the strength in food inflation is “largely due to the high input costs being faced by food producers”.
But the authors of the analysis suggest that as commodity and energy prices have declined, food CPI inflation “should moderate going forward”.