Over half the Conservative MPs standing down at the next election risk seeing their seat taken by Labour, data analysis shows.
Thirty-six Tory MPs have officially announced they will not stand at the next election, which is a higher total than each of the previous elections, with 31 departing in 2017 and 32 in 2019.
Among the MPs not seeking re-election next year, 21 are in seats which are vulnerable to Labour, according to i analysis of data by Electoral Calculus.
Fifteen of the MPs standing down are in seats likely to be held by the Conservatives by the next election, although several are only staying safe due to the likelihood of opposition parties splitting the vote.
The Electoral Calculus data is based on projected results if Labour won 44 per cent of the vote while 29.3 per cent went to the Conservatives, 9.3 per cent went to the Liberal Democrats and 3.7 per cent went to the SNP – as is predicted in an average of current polling.
Martin Baxter, founder and CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “More Conservative MPs than in 2019 have already said they will not stand again, and others might join them before the next election.
He added that while the reasons for MPs departing “vary”, many of them “will be worried about losing their seat at a general election” or are likely to be “unhappy with the direction of the party”.
“The prospect of new constituency boundaries is another complicating factor as some MPs will have to fight internal party battles just to be a candidate if the number of local seats is reduced,” he continued.
Fresh figures from Electoral Calculus, due to be published Thursday, suggest Labour could win up to 420 seats at the next election while the Conservatives will lose 211, taking their total to 154.
These predictions are likely to change as polling shifts but give a strong indication of the anxiety among many current and departing Conservative MPs about the threat from Labour’s poll lead.
The data also uses current constituency boundaries, many of which are due to change at the next election to better reflect population distributions.
Two of the MPs standing down – Andrew Percy, MP for Brigg and Goole and Chris Skidmore, MP for Kingswood – are in seats which are effectively being abolished under the new boundaries.
Eleven of the MPs standing down, however, are in seats unchanged by the latest proposed boundaries, all of which were held by the Conservatives at the last election.
Seven of these constituencies are currently vulnerable to Labour, including Altrincham and Sale West, the seat of 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, which has a 76 per cent chance of being won by Labour.
Four of the MPs standing down are in so-called “Red Wall” seats won by the Conservatives at the last election, all of which are set to return to Labour under current predictions.
They include Bishop Auckland MP Dehenna Davison, Wolverhampton West MP Stuart Anderson, West Bromwich MP Nicola Richards and Stoke-on-Trent Central MP Jo Gideon.
Several former Conservative MPs who have since lost the whip and are standing down – including Matt Hancock, Chris Pincher and Julian Knight – have not been included in this analysis.
Here are the 12 seats where Tory MPs are standing down to watch out for:
The former deputy prime minister announced last week that he would not seek to stand again in his Esher and Walton seat, which he has held since 2010.
His seat is thought to be particularly vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, who helped reduce his majority from 23,298 to 2,743 between 2017 and 2019.
According to Electoral Calculus, the seat has a 71 per cent chance of staying blue at the next election, while the Liberal Democrats have a 24 per cent chance of taking it.
It predicts that, based on current polling, the Conservatives could get 38.7 per cent of the vote, while the Lib Dem’s would come in second with 30.1 per cent.
Douglas Ross has been MP for Moray since 2017 but has faced fierce competition from the SNP in recent years. In 2019, he won with one of the slimmest majorities in the UK, beating the SNP’s Laura Mitchell by just 513 votes.
According to Electoral Calculus, the seat has a chance of staying Conservative, as Labour and the SNP could split the vote.
However, recent polling by YouGov has claimed Moray is set to be narrowly taken by the SNP which could get 35 per cent of the vote to the Conservatives’ 34 per cent.
Dehenna Davison, once considered a rising star in the Conservative Party, became Bishop Auckland’s first Conservative MP at the last election at just 26 years old, winning with a majority of 7,962.
Her seat looks likely to return into Labour hands, with Electoral Calculus predicting that Labour could take 49.3 per cent of the vote to the Conservatives 31.1 per cent, and that the party has a 86 per cent chance of winning.
Sir Graham has been MP for Altrincham and Sale West since the constituency was founded in 1997, and currently has a majority of 6,139, but announced he was standing down earlier this year.
Electoral Calculus gives the Manchester seat a 76 per cent chance of being taken by Labour, and predicts the party could take 45.1 per cent of the vote while the Conservatives take 34.5 per cent.
Jonathan Djanogly, Conservative MP for Huntingdon, has said he will stand down at the next general election shortly after his local association rejected his candidacy.
He has been MP for the seat since 2001, but last month a party panel refused to automatically reselect him, meaning the matter would be put to a vote of local members.
The seat has a 56 per cent chance of being won by Labour, with their predicted outcome being 37.7 per cent vote share to the Conservatives’ 35.7 per cent.
Jo Gideon became the first-ever Conservative MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central in 2019, narrowly winning the seat from the incumbent Gareth Snell by just 670 votes – one of the smallest majorities in the country.
Her seat looks likely to return to Labour hands, with the Conservatives’ vote share slashed from 45.4 per cent to 25.1 per cent.
Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 98 per cent chance of winning and predicts its share will increase from 43.3 per cent in 2019 to 56.1 per cent at the next election.
The former environment secretary has been the MP for the Cornwall seat of Camborne and Redruth since 2010, and last won it with a majority of 8,700.
His seat has a 79 per cent chance of switching to Labour at the next election, with the Conservative vote share falling from 53.1 per cent to 32.7 per cent based on current predictions.
Labour, meanwhile, is expected to increase its share from 35.9 per cent to 45.2 per cent at the next election.
Stuart Anderson, who is currently Assistant Government Whip, won Wolverhampton South West by just 1,661 votes in 2019, taking the seat from Labour for the first time since 1997.
The Black Country seat has a 91 per cent chance of being taken back by Labour at the next election, with the party set to win 53.9 per cent of the vote to the Conservative’s 30.4 per cent.
Nicola Richards narrowly won West Bromwich East, the seat of former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson, in 2019 with a majority of 1,593, becoming its first Conservative MP since the constituency was created in 1974.
Labour has a 96 per cent chance of regaining the seat, according to Electoral Calculus, with the Conservative vote share set to be slashed from 46.7 per cent to 27.1 per cent.
Chloe Smith has held multiple ministerial across government and is currently standing in for Michelle Donelan as Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology while she is on maternity leave.
She was first elected as MP for Norwich North in 2009 when she was just 27, and most recently held the seat with a majority of 4,738.
Her seat faces being taken by Labour, which could win 51.4 per cent of the vote at the next election to the Conservative’s 30.1 per cent.
Richard Bacon has been the MP for South Norfolk since 2001, and most recently won it in 2019 with a majority of 21,275.
The seat has been won by Conservative candidates consistently since 1950 but could switch to Labour at the next election for the first time in more than 60 years.
Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 51 per cent chance of victory to the Conservatives’ 49 per cent, with Labour set to narrowly win with 38.1 per cent of the vote to the Tories’ 37.3 per cent.
Nigel Adams, who has held numerous ministerial posts including culture minister and Asia minister, has held the seat of Selby and Ainsty since 2010, most recently with a majority of 20,137.
He has been the constituencies only MP since its creation, and his successor has a 52 per cent chance of being Labour at the next election.
Electoral Calculus predicts Labour will narrowly take the seat with 39.7 per cent of the vote, while Conservatives will come in second with 38.8 per cent.
Chris Skidmore, Kingswood – Labour gain
2019 majority: 11,220
Chance of Lab gain: 75 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 45.7 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 34.6 per cent
Note: Seat abolished under proposed Boundary Review
Craig Whittaker, Calder Valley – Labour gain
2019 majority: 5,774
Chance of Lab gain: 90 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 51.8 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 31.3 per cent
Edward Timpson, Eddisbury – Labour gain
2019 majority: 18,443
Chance of Lab gain: 53 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 38.3 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 37.8 per cent
Henry Smith, Crawley – Labour gain
2019 majority: 8,360
Chance of Lab gain: 83 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 49.0 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 33.4 per cent
Mark Pawsey, Rugby – Labour gain
2019 majority: 13,447
Chance of Lab gain: 70 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 44.2 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 35.8 per cent
Matthew Offord, Barnet – Labour gain
2019 majority: 4,230
Chance of Lab gain: 85 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 49.8 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 32.9 per cent
Mike Penning, Hemel Hempstead – Labour gain
2019 majority: 14,563
Chance of Lab gain: 61 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 41.4 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 36.5 per cent
Pauline Latham, Mid Derbyshire – Labour gain
2019 majority: 15,385
Chance of Lab gain: 61 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 41.9 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 37.0 per cent
Robert Goodwill, Scarborough and Whitby – Labour gain
2019 majority: 10,270
Chance of Lab gain: 80 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 46.9 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 33.8 per cent
Robin Walker, Worcester – Labour gain
2019 majority: 6,758
Chance of Lab gain: 88 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 50.3 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 30.9 per cent
Stephen McPartland, Stevenage – Labour gain
2019 majority: 8,562
Chance of Lab gain: 82 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 47.6 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 32.5 per cent
Adam Afriyie, Windsor – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 20,079
Chance of Con hold: 78 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 41.7 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 30.2 per cent
Alister Jack, Dumfries and Galloway – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 1,805
Chance of Con hold: 54 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 36.6 per cent
Predicted SNP vote share: 33.2 per cent
Andrew Percy, Brigg and Goole – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 21,941
Chance of Con hold: 58 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 41.1 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 38.4 per cent
Note: Seat abolished under proposed Boundary Review
Charles Walker, Broxbourne – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 19,807
Chance of Con hold: 63 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 41.6 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 36.3 per cent
Crispin Blunt, Reigate – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 18,310
Chance of Con hold: 61 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 37.2 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 33.5 per cent
Gary Streeter, Devon South West – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 21,430
Chance of Con hold: 56 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 39.6 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 36.8 per cent
Gordon Henderson, Sittingbourne and Sheppey – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 24,479
Chance of Con hold: 60 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 40.3 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 37.2 per cent
John Howell, Henley – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 14,053
Chance of Con hold: 75 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 38.8 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 25.8 per cent
Predicted Lib Dem vote share: 21 per cent
Nadine Dorries, Mid Bedfordshire – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 24,664
Chance of Con hold: 57 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 39.4 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 36.4 per cent
Paul Beresford, Mole Valley – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 12,041
Chance of Con hold: 82 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 41.0 per cent
Predicted Lib Dem vote share: 25.3 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 20.1 per cent
Philip Dunne, Ludlow – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 23,648
Chance of Con hold: 78 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 41.7 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 30.2 per cent
Sajid Javid, Bromsgrove – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 23,106
Chance of Con hold: 65 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 41.8 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 35.3 per cent
William Wragg, Hazel Grove – Conservative hold
2019 majority: 4,423
Chance of Con hold: 56 per cent
Predicted Con vote share: 34.8 per cent
Predicted Lib Dem vote share: 29.6 per cent
Predicted Lab vote share: 24.4 per cent
